How often do concessions get extended versus re-tendered?
When a concession reaches the end of its term, one of a few outcomes follows: extension with the incumbent, a competitive re-tender, renegotiation, or return to public operation. Concessio computes historical base rates for these outcomes by sector and country from documented lifecycle events — turning an anecdote-driven question into a data question.
Last updated: July 2026
Terminal value in a concession underwrite often hinges on a probability: will the incumbent keep the asset, and on what terms? Most teams answer it with anecdotes from their own market.
A base rate beats an anecdote: the right reference class for a toll road in one country is not the experience of an airport in another.
Concessio answers it with base rates: across the database, documented extensions, re-tenders, renegotiations, and terminations are recorded as lifecycle events — each traced to a primary source — and aggregated into sector-by-country outcome frequencies.
The distribution varies sharply by sector and jurisdiction, which is precisely why a base rate beats an anecdote: the right reference class for a toll road in one country is not the experience of an airport in another.
Investors use the base rates to underwrite terminal value and incumbency advantage; advisors use them to frame renewal strategy; lenders use them to stress tail scenarios.
Frequently asked questions
- Where do the base rates come from?
- From documented lifecycle events in the Concessio database — extensions, re-tenders, renegotiations, and terminations — each citing a primary source.
- Do outcomes really differ that much by sector?
- Yes. Outcome distributions differ sharply across sectors and jurisdictions, which is why Concessio computes them at sector-by-country grain rather than quoting a single global figure.
- Can I see the underlying events behind a base rate?
- Yes. Every base rate aggregates individual documented events, and each event links to its source.